LETS TALK ABOUT FOOD
FOOD SECURITY IN 2050
G'day from Australian! Today I am uniting with thousands of other bloggers around the world for World Blogging Action Day. As today is also World Food Day! The topic we were set was "Food", Our posting can be on any topic we chose as long as it relates to food. I have elected to write about food sustainability in an attempt to answer the question Will we be capable of feeding the world's population in 2050? When it is estimated the world population will reach 9 billion.
I guess based on current practise and inaction of world governments and the UN the simple answer is 'no'! We are not able to feed the world now, millions of people around the world are dying of malnutrition. I first wrote on this topic in 1986 for a year 12 assignment.
But back then world was a very different place, the cry against poverty was loud. It was in the media and in our faces 24/7, the entertainment world was in full voice, charities were establish and child sponsorship became popular. I think many of us believe it was at least in theory possible to Feed the world! as the song said as it played on our radios non stop that Christmas.
Back then the famine that sparked my easy was Etorphia and almost everyone knew about and many sort to find a solution and even dared to unite the world for one cause. Today an almost identical situation is occurring in Sudan with civil war, political corruption and greed being major contributing factors although the are also farming practices and environment influences. Yet the cries and the pleas for change have stopped.
I would argue in today's world political arena our ability to support the worlds population physical needs is a up hill battle nearing on impossible. But that isn't really the question. If in an ideal world, we got our act together, stop fighting for political control and dominance would we have the resources to support the world's population and what might that entail.
For me the search for the answer lies in an understanding of sustainability and our intellectual and emotional ability to bring about the solutions needed. Food security or food sustainability means different things to different people. There are many factors at play as we have already seen. Food security at is core is the ability of any given population to secure food supply with out fear of starvation. (Wikipedia/Food Security)
Trade reform and food security (Food and Agricultural Organizations of the United Nations), further argues food security is achieved when all people, all of the time have the means to access food that will sufficiently, safely and nutritiously maintain an active and healthy lifestyle.
So another issue to monumentality put aside is any compassity or otherwise to transport food supplies to every person who needs it. If we somehow had the means to do that would we be able to produce enough food.
Surely a fundamental question we need to ask ourselves here is will the surface of the world still safely produce enough food to nutritiously feed the population at it current growth rate. Here I know I am putting aside differences in standards of living across the globe.
Universal environmental factors the effect food production are availability for fertile land to grow reasonable quality food crops and graze healthy livestocks, suitable quality water supplies, knowledge of best farming practises at the grass roots levels and ongoing access to things like fisheries and any environmental impacts on our water ways and oceans.(.Food and Agricultural Organizations of the United Nations .)
Until recently, nutritional deficiencies only existed in isolated areas and mainly on the continent of Africa. However, these are issues now facing countries such as China, India and even Australia (Wikipedia/Food Security).
Malnutrition is now present in Western Society. Over weight or obess children can also me malnourished. So food security is not just about under supply but the availability of the right types of food and a reasonable and acceptable standard.
Perhaps an even greatest threat to come is climate change.( Potential Impact Climate Change on Food Supply.) Climate change is not just about increased in temperatures which impact on the duration of growing seasons, but also ultraviolet radiation, carbon dioxide, and pest control Pimentel, et al., "Ethical Issues Concerning Potential Global Climate Change on Food Production." estimated this may decrease food production by as much as 27% in North America alone, unless new agricultural technologies can be developed. Soil erosion has already claimed a high percentage of land in Africa where best farming practises knowledge might be considered poor.
However soil erosion and over use of land is also becoming a problem in the developed world such as Australia and an increasing problem in Australia is quality grazing land due to long periods of drought. (Climate change and food supply ).
Most current studies on the impact of global warming on crop production indicate we will see a substantial overall drop in crops as a result of climate change (Climate Change and the World Food Supply). However we know in terms of determining food security, the volume of food we are able to produce is not the only determining factor, we also need to consider food quality and its nutritional benefits.
The production of food is not the sole factor is our food supply chain. Crops and livestock are not the only elements of our diets. Seafood and poultry are also eaten by millions around the world. We are already beginning to experience difficulties with the supply of a variety of different species of fish. The quality of our waterways and oceans are under constant threat of population and rising sea waters tempturers will furthermore impact on our sea life. Even by imposing caps and restrictions we already see these resource are fast being depleted.( Is there enough food out there.)
Here we are beginning to see population growth is a very small factor in the food sustainability debate. Traditional models based on birth control and population caps even if they were achievable do not allow for rge change in availability of a number of resources our food production change is dependant upon. The question is not longer about the availability of suitable land, but our ability to adapt of agricultural practices and technologies to the change climate and environments in which we live. (Nelson Farmed Out - Scientific American)
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We also know we do not presently consume all the food that we produce, it is estimate that between 30 to 40% of the food that makes it to market is throwing out each year. Worldwide countries differ in the ways they waste food. In the developing world food is largely lost through poor food storage and preservation issues, the ability to transport food across the food supply chain system. In the West it is more likely to be you and I throwing away food because we have brought too much or forget to us it. On estimate is a typical family could avoid wasting around $1000 of food a year. (Godfray, Advanancing Science Serving Society 2011 Annual Meeting )
In all probablity we current do produce enough food to feed the world's population and many argue the problem is not food supply but the global food trade practises. But is there enough food out there to feed an estimated 9 billion people in 2050 and what will be the impact of global warming?
Changing the mind set of the food and agricultural trade markets, and putting a stop to Food Wars the other side of the equation in sustainable food supplies. Some would argue that it is not about quality but the menu itself. (A menu for feeding 9 million people). By addressing the efficiency, technology and polices of food production and the World Food Trade markets then we will be conformable able to obtain food security.
Sir John Beddington, chief UK government advisor argues, even by 2030 we are going to need about 50% more food, 40% more available fresh water and something like a 50% reduction in carbon energy. (cited The Advance Science Serving Society 2011 Annual Meeting). If the ability to feed 9 billion people in 2050 were based on those figures alone, assuming we secure a water supply, and miraculously were able to half the amount of carbon energy we use by 2030 we would already have a short fall of 10% food supply. Luckily figures alone don't tell a story and I don't know anything about the quality of food security Beddington was basing his conclusions on.
Accord to Fedoroff, (The Advance Science Serving Society 2011 Annual Meeting) the most critical step we can take towards food security in 2050 is to rethink the agriculture system used would wide. What is needed is an energy and water systems that convert simple compounds into our food and livestock feed and to optimize a global food system that will adapt to local environmental conditions.
The idealist in me wants to say, it is at least feasible that the surface of earth will support 9 billion people, but the reality is too much of the thinking being put for on food sustainability forwards 2050, is both dependent on climate change models that were chosen to be studied and their uncerntities and the unreliability of 'mankind' to work towards 'the great good' makes in a near impossibility.
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